Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions Fundamentals (eLearning series)

Predicting and forecasting greenhouse gas emissions is especially important considering the regulatory environment and possible safety and environmental impacts. This series will cover the identification of emission modes, how to reduce such emissions, and finally, how to identify the optimal techniques and technologies to reduce emissions to more acceptable levels. This series will equip you with the skills and knowledge to analyze and forecast greenhouse gas emissions. Throughout the series, we will delve into various aspects of emissions forecasting, from fundamental concepts to advanced methodologies. We strongly encourage completing the individual courses in sequence.

Candidates can take the following self-paced eLearning courses individually or as a 20 hour online series. Upon completing each eLearning course, a certificate with Continued Education Units (CEU) is issued.

Target Audience

Industry plant technical managers, engineers, maintenance personnel, project engineers, and engineering and technical personnel involved in managing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

You Will Learn

Introduction to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecasting

• Understand the relationship between the energy transition and greenhouse gas emissions
• Identify the principal options used for abating GHG emissions
• Understand the two main greenhouse gas accounting methods to quantify emissions
• Gain a working understanding of the tools used to measure greenhouse gas emissions
• Understand the difference between absolute greenhouse gas emissions and greenhouse gas intensity
• Understand greenhouse gas inventories at project, asset, and portfolio levels
• Define forecasting and its relevance in managing future greenhouse gas emissions
• Understand the purpose and objectives of forecasting greenhouse gas emissions
• Gain a working understanding of the processes in forecasting greenhouse gas emissions

Defining the Scope and Assessment Boundaries of the Greenhouse Gas Forecast

• Identify which types of emissions are measured and how much detail should be included
• Determine constraints for the planned forecast
• Identify key stakeholders and data sources necessary for comprehensive Greenhouse Gas forecasting
• Identify all operational activities that contribute to GHG emissions
• Describe the Greenhouse Gas accounting principles and their significance when preparing a Greenhouse Gas emissions forecast
• Analyze the broader organizational context to ensure inclusivity of all emissions sources based on their relevance and materiality
• Describe what boundaries are and why they matter
• Explain the importance of setting adequate organizational and operational boundaries

Mapping Greenhouse Gas Emission Sources in the Oil and Gas Industry

• Use the techniques to identify sources of greenhouse gases
• Quantify greenhouse gas emissions
• Analyze collected data
• Demonstrate the value of process flow diagrams (PFDs)
• Determine what types of PFDs are useful in working with GHGs
• Identify how collaborative teamwork can be used to identify GHG sources and develop GHG PFDs
• Identify what are the requirements when collecting data for a GHG project
• Determine the systematic process needed to collect and analyze relevant data streams

Factors That Impact the Greenhouse Gas Forecast Fundamentals

• Understand the commonly used approaches for modeling current and future GHG emissions:
  • Bottom-Up Approach – Explore the bottom-up methodology, which involves aggregating emissions data from individual sources within an organization or sector
  • Top-Down Approach – Examine the top-down methodology, which utilizes aggregated emissions data at the sectoral or national level to estimate GHG emissions
• Identify the internal and external factors that shape GHG emissions forecasts, highlighting the importance of considering a broad range of variables that can have a material impact on a forecast

Working with Greenhouse Gas Emissions Factors Fundamentals

• Recognize what emissions factors are, where they can be found, and how to use them
• Differentiate between emission factors and conversion factors
• Determine how to decide which emission factors to use
• Recognize what Global Warming Potential ratios are
• Use Global Warming Potential ratios to convert different GHG emissions into CO2e emissions
• Use emission factors to calculate GHG emissions
• Distinguish between market-based and location-based Scope 2 emissions
• Recognize the role emission factors play when forecasting GHG emissions
• Use emission factors to forecast emissions

Establishing Baseline(s) and Projecting Business as Usual (BAU) Greenhouse Gas Emissions Fundamentals

• Describe what a baseline is and why it matters
• Identify the requirements of baselines
• Determine how to select a base year for the baseline
• Distinguish between the fixed base year and the rolling base year approaches
• Outline the steps for compiling baseline emissions
• Distinguish the key drivers that influence GHG emissions
• Describe what Business as Usual (BAU) scenarios are and why they are important
• Determine the best approach to develop BAU scenarios
• Explain why BAU scenarios are critical when producing GHG emissions forecasts
• Identify the steps required to develop BAU scenarios

Assumptions for Greenhouse Gas Forecasting and Developing Intervention Timelines Fundamentals

• Describe the factors that need to be considered when forecasting future production levels
• Outline the factors involved in the projection of future production levels in oil and gas industries
• Outline the external factors involved in the projection of future production levels in the oil and gas industries
• Describe the economic, geographical, and political factors that need to be considered when forecasting future production levels
• Determine how projections can be improved
• Describe the methods that can be used to refine output projections
• Describe what intervention timelines are and how they affect the outcomes of an emissions forecast
• Summarize the uses and implications of how different intervention timelines can affect an emissions forecast

Identifying Risk in Greenhouse Gas Forecasting Fundamentals

• Identify potential risks associated with developing GHG emissions forecasts and describe the potential impacts
• Outline the mitigation strategies and tools to address and reduce risks when developing GHG emissions forecasts

Greenhouse Gas Forecasting Quality Control, Assurance, and Reporting Fundamentals

• Differentiate between the types of uncertainty when developing GHG emissions forecasts
• Outline the reasons why quality control is essential when developing GHG emissions forecasts
• Specify what are the critical components of a quality control approach
• Describe how to develop a quality management system and which technical components need to be included
• Differentiate between quality control, quality assurance, and verification activities
• Outline the relevant IPCC quality principles for historical GHG inventories to define quality that are used for quality control and quality assurance for GHG emissions forecasts
• Identify the significant elements of a quality control/quality assurance and verification system that need to be implemented in tracking forecast development
• Determine the key components to include in an emissions forecast report

Course Content

• Introduction to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecasting
• Defining the Scope and Assessment Boundaries of the Basic Greenhouse Gas Forecast
• Mapping Greenhouse Gas Emission Sources in the Oil and Gas Industry
• Factors That Impact the Greenhouse Gas Forecast Fundamentals
• Working with Greenhouse Gas Emissions Factors Fundamentals
• Establishing Baseline(s) and Projecting Business as Usual (BAU) Foundation Greenhouse Gas Emissions Fundamentals
• Assumptions for Greenhouse Gas Forecasting and Developing Foundation Intervention Timelines Fundamentals
• Identifying Risk in Greenhouse Gas Forecasting Fundamentals
• Greenhouse Gas Forecasting Quality Control, Assurance, and Foundation Reporting Fundamentals

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